San Francisco Treat

The Giants will defy history and win Game 7 of the 2014 World Series

I gamble on the World Series every year. It’s one of my guilty pleasures. I don’t expect to be up for election to the Hall of Fame in my lifetime, so I think I’m safe in that regard. This year I bypassed betting on one of the two teams to win the series, my usual play, and I opted to play game-by-game. I expected a long, see-saw series. A great one. The teams matched up well, came from the bottom of the playoff pool to get here, and seemed equally willed to win it all. The key to betting game-by-game was laying off Game 1. In doing so, my plan was to come back in Game 2 with the Game 1 loser, and go from there, play momentum swings and pitching matchups, etc. I’m 5–0 in this series. I went with Royals in Game 2, a game they had to have, with possibly their best pitcher on the hill, 23 year-old phenom flamethrower Yovani Ventura. I rode them again in Game 3, thinking it was their best chance to steal a game in San Fran, with Vogelsong and Bumgarner on deck in Games 4 and 5. I was right again. I stuck to my plan and plunked down on the Giants in Game 4 and 5. Two more wins. En fuego. I’m a genius. The baseball gods have nothing on me.

Game 6 was a tougher play. The Giants had momentum coming back to Kansas City, but I liked the Royals and history was on my side. Home teams have a ridiculous 23–3 record in games 6 and 7 of the WS since 1982. As a baseball guy and World Series fanatic I’ve seen it before…down and out team comes home for Game 6 facing elimination, finds a way to win almost every time. It’s an easy trend to bet on, but I was in San Fran less than a week ago and was getting sucked in by the San Fran mojo. In the nature of full disclosure, I even bought an official team hat and have been wearing it throughout the series back here in New York, even as I had cash riding on the Royals. My allegiance would appear to be split on nights I bet the Royals, but it wasn’t. My only allegiance when betting the World Series is to my money.

So I went with history over heart in Game 6 and bet the Royals, again with Ventura on the hill (I owe him a few cold Presidentes) and we, both Ventura and myself, cruised to an easy win, 10–0. I turned the game off in the 3rd inning. It was that kind of easy. In bed by 10pm. The win put me at 5–0 in this World Series. Profits abound. I can’t be stopped. And as an added bonus, the baseball purist in me gets a World Series Game 7. There’s nothing like it. Can’t wait. The question now: which team is the play in this last game?

The same history that dictates I bet KC in Game 6 would dictate I bet KC in the deciding, winner take all Game 7. I respect baseball history. I study it. It’s a favorite subject of mine, especially World Series history. With that in mind, I did a little research. I found the last team (as I suspected) to win a WS Game 7 on the road was the ‘79 Pirates. A great team, led by series MVP Willie Stargell (oldest Series MVP ever at age 39), slugger Dave Parker, and great pitchers like John Candelaria, Bert Blyleven, and Dock Ellis. That’s 35 years ago. 35 years! There have been nine WS Game 7's since then. All home team wins. Furthermore, the Pirates won Game 6 on the road, as well. The last team to LOSE Game 6 of the WS on the road and come back and win Game 7 was the mighty Big Red Machine of 1975. Even one of the most iconic World Series home runs in history by Carlton Fisk in Game 6 wouldn’t deny the Cincinatti Reds in Game 7. But they are the last team to do it. Almost 40 years ago! History says to not only take the Royals tonight, but take all of my winnings from Games 2 through 6 and go double-or-nothing on KC. There’s no way San Fran pulls it out tonight. Add to the fact that San Fran is 0–4 in their WS Game 7 history and you have the makings of a very smart and historically proven play at good odds (KC is -120 at the time I’m writing this).

But I say BUCK the trend tonight. My heart AND my mind is with San Fran. I planned it this way yesterday, already knowing the odds were stacked against them. I said to myself I’ll play KC tonight, in Game 6, then throw a chunk (half) of my earnings on the dog, San Fran, in Game 7. I don’t need to explain the matter of my heart more than saying I have always had an affinity for the team. I’m a diehard Yanks fan, but Dodgers and Giants come in a distant 2nd and 3rd, respectively. So there’s the heart of it. But what is my mind telling me? Why do I believe THIS team will be the first team since that great Cincy team to pull off this rare feat?

Because the Giants have the pedigree, experience, and the will to do it. The Giants have won 2 of the last 4 World Series. They’re on the verge of a dynasty. A win tonight is the end of that verge. They know what it takes to be a champion. Kansas City has had an incredible run in this post-season. I think it ends tonight.

The Giants lineup is stacked, and dare I say comparable to that great Reds team. Posey, Pence, and Sandoval in the middle. Panik and Crawford swinging good, young bats. A big hitter in Morse at DH, ready to explode tonight (my 2nd X factor — read on for my top X factor). Belt is hitting the ball well. It’s a tough lineup that needs some hits tonight, and they need them early. I think they get them against Jeremy Guthrie, a good pitcher, but a far cry from guys like Jack Morris and Bret Saberhagen. I think Hudson, who said tonight’s game “will be fun” in his post-game interview last night, is a good veteran pitcher who won’t be rattled by the moment or the atmosphere. And the Giants have the biggest X factor in tonight’s game — Madison Bumgarner, ready to enter on 2 days rest at any given moment. He will be the 2nd pitcher you see tonight if Hudson falters. The man has been lights out this post-season, and if he pitches lights out tonight, he gets the coveted World Series MVP and goes on the books as one of the great pitching performances in WS history. In the 1975 Game 7, Don Gullet gave up three early runs to the Red Sox and Fenway was jumping. A bevy of super relievers led by Game 7 winner Clay Carroll held the Sox scoreless the rest of the way, as the Reds went on to win the game and the series, 4–3. The 6'5", 240 pound Bumgarner promises to do the same tonight, all by himself.

It’s been an exciting, back and forth Series. Tonight should be another super game. A Game 7. It doesn’t get any better (or bettor). I’ve called five in a row. Odds are I will be wrong tonight. But like the great Babe Ruth, I’m stepping to the plate almost 12 hours before the game, and I’m pointing my bat at San Fran, and putting my money where my mouth is. If the Giants defy history and win a Game 7 on the road tonight, it will be a momentous win for a special team, a team you can put up there with the rest of the great ones. A dynasty. If they lose tonight, I’ll probably delete this post. But if they do indeed win, drinks on me.